Norbert Walter (born in 1944) has been Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank Group since 1992. In 1968 he graduated in economics from Johann Wolfgang Goethe University in Frankfurt am Main and he also completed his doctorate there in 1971. He was employed at Frankfurt’s Institut für Kapitalmarktforschung from 1968 onwards but left in 1971 to join the Institute for World Economics in Kiel, where he subsequently became a professor and director in 1978. In 1987 he joined Deutsche Bank Group as Director of the Economics Department, Deutsche Bank Research. From 2000 to 2002 he was also a member of the Committee of Wise Men on the Regulation of European Securities Markets at the European Commission in Brussels. Since 2007, Walter has also been a member of the Business and Industry Advisory Committee of the OECD (BIAC).
As a chief economist, Walter loves debate, and for the many people who see him in the evening news bulletins he is - as he says himself - like a cup of espresso: small, dark and strong.
The U.S. as much as any other part of the developed world needs a simple, just, incentive oriented tax and social contribution system. Basically, this is a 20% VAT, a 20% flat income tax with a generous subsistence minimum (to differ from country to country) and a 20% corporate income tax. This should be complemented with emission certificates to protect the environment. If the latter are too complicated to introduce, a gasoline tax (plus equivalent for other fossil energies) of two USD per gallon would make the planet tick – in this case the VAT should be reduced to 16%.… Read more
The cycle will not be V-shaped, it may turn out to become a wide open U. The severe uncertainties may make it into a W. Since the U is so wide open, by the turn of 2009/2010 the average man will hold the perception the cycle is L-shaped. The common man will be as wrong as the financial market chicken, who tend to believe after 6 weeks of bullish stock markets, that this recession will be V-shaped.… Read more
Unlike its ill-fated predecessor in 1933, the London Global Summit, vintage 2009, at least did no harm, which in itself is good news, but it did little to provide reassurance, either. In terms of substance, the G20 confirmed agreements reached before the summit on financial regulation and on increasing the funds available to the IMF and MDBs. The IMF clearly is back in business and in fashion. Pre-summit squabbles on fiscal stimuli did not erupt openly, but this is more likely to be a truce than an end to the fighting. G20 summits will become a regular feature of the… Read more
Barack Obama is an outstanding politician. Parties all over Europe would be happy to welcome such a smart, pragmatic and likeable politician in their ranks – but there is one thing that seems to be common to all politicians regardless of their political color or personal character – especially when they are in charge: they are forced to bring us good news rather than bad news. And we should not blame them for this. However, it is the job of economic forecasters to critically review the politicians’ statements and to tell the truth – whether it’s good or bad news.… Read more
The following would be my comments on stimulus policies: GDP is a good denominator. Size is important, but reliability of timing of fiscal effects is equally crucial. Big government debt or household debt should hold back spending and vice versa. To avoid leakage effects a cooperative approach of G20 and others is highly welcome. Support for specific sectors and even more specific companies reduces efficiency and invites protectionism. Anything below 1% of GDP for effective 2009 stimulus is too little. Monetary policy can approach zero interest for 2009 without inflation worry. Using exchange rate policy to support national economy off… Read more
Related Link: http://www.norbert-walter.de
